Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1778 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1778 FLL 08:53 → BWI 11:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2994 FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1778 Southwest	FLL 08:53	BWI 11:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1584 Southwest	FLL 11:06	BWI 13:42	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1569 Southwest	FLL 13:47	BWI 16:17	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest	FLL 14:57	BWI 17:23	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:42	BWI 14:37	16%	5%	1.2%	72%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	20%	6%	0.8%	52%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	25%	10%	1.3%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON