Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2067 at 11:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2067 FLL 11:51 → CLE 14:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1590 FLL 20:55 → CLE 23:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2067 United Flight history →	FLL 11:51	CLE 14:41	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
F9 3451 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 16:59	CLE 19:58	21%	7%	1.8%	73%
B6 1590 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLE 23:55	22%	10%	1.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON