Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1474 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1474 FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2149 FLL 20:55 → CLT 23:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1474 American Flight history →	FLL 06:03	CLT 08:07	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 09:19	CLT 11:21	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 3103 American	FLL 12:21	CLT 14:29	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2585 American	FLL 13:58	CLT 16:02	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	19%	6%	0.8%	61%
AA 1652 American	FLL 18:08	CLT 20:07	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	25%	9%	1.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON