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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1311 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1417 FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time
Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1311 United Flight history → FLL 08:00 DEN 10:18 5% 1% 0.6% 93%
UA 204 United Flight history → FLL 10:12 DEN 12:34 7% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1417 United Flight history → FLL 15:30 DEN 18:18 16% 6% 0.7% 78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 53m Atlanta ATL 08:04 → DEN 09:16DL 346 5h 53m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:33 → DFW 09:52AA 1712 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359 6h 13m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → DEN 16:11DL 493 6h 03m 84% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON