Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1712 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1712 FLL 07:33 → DFW 09:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 3317 FLL 18:36 → DFW 20:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 07:33	DFW 09:52	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	8%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	FLL 12:46	DFW 15:02	18%	5%	0.8%	76%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	21%	9%	1.8%	68%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	FLL 15:29	DFW 17:37	25%	10%	1.0%	58%
MQ 9881 Envoy	FLL 17:32	DFW 19:53	25%	8%	2.3%	no record
AA 638 American Flight history →	FLL 17:03	DFW 19:23	26%	9%	1.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 1373 American Flight history →	FLL 17:23	DFW 19:31	30%	10%	2.1%	64%
F9 3317 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:36	DFW 20:58	31%	12%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON