Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2008 FLL 20:27 → DTW 23:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	2%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:49	DTW 15:46	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:40	DTW 19:46	10%	5%	0.9%	70%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	11%	4%	0.8%	77%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:10	DTW 23:18	13%	6%	1.2%	64%
B6 2290 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:19	DTW 23:29	15%	7%	1.6%	73%
F9 2008 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 20:27	DTW 23:38	24%	8%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON