Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2299 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2299 FLL 06:59 → EWR 10:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2299 United	FLL 06:59	EWR 10:07	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2387 United Flight history →	FLL 09:53	EWR 12:45	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:04	EWR 11:02	8%	2%	0.8%	65%
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	9%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:46	EWR 15:50	15%	5%	0.9%	78%
UA 712 United	FLL 14:35	EWR 17:42	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	19%	11%	2.1%	51%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:53	EWR 19:00	20%	10%	1.3%	61%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:24	EWR 20:35	23%	10%	1.3%	69%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	25%	12%	2.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON