Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:54 am at Fort Lauderdale); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 914 at 19:01, 25%.

Nonstops today


B6 914 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:01	HPN 22:12	25%	6%	0.6%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	FLL 13:43 → ORD 15:56AA 1443	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59AA 3752 · flown by Envoy	9h 16m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 55m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 08:39 → ATL 10:39DL 1326	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → HPN 14:35DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	5h 56m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:24 → HPN 17:56DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	8h 00m	99%	86%
American Details →	FLL 11:16 → DCA 13:54AA 1893	3h 06m Washington	DCA 17:00 → HPN 18:28AA 5236 · flown by PSA	7h 12m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON