Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1421 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2960 FLL 17:00 → IAD 19:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 8121 United	FLL 12:11	IAD 14:43	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	29%	12%	2.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON