Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: MX 2366 at 08:15, 11%.

Safest bet that day MX 2366 FLL 08:15 → JAX 09:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 18 FLL 21:07 → JAX 22:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MX 2366 Breeze	FLL 08:15	JAX 09:39	11%	3%	1.6%	no record
B6 2118 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:20	JAX 14:40	25%	9%	2.7%	68%
B6 18 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:07	JAX 22:36	35%	16%	4.4%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON