Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:31 → JFK 21:24 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2165 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:06	JFK 10:00	2%	1%	0.7%	90%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:01	JFK 10:00	4%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:12	JFK 13:59	9%	3%	0.8%	72%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:29	JFK 18:48	10%	4%	0.9%	72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	JFK 23:05	13%	5%	1.6%	59%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:57	JFK 14:53	13%	5%	0.8%	64%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 22:15	JFK 01:18	15%	6%	2.1%	64%
B6 2702 JetBlue	FLL 18:31	JFK 21:24	19%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON