Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 1301 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day B6 1301 FLL 07:00 → LAX 09:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 101 FLL 18:35 → LAX 21:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 07:00	LAX 09:43	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	13%	2%	0.7%	82%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	17%	8%	1.3%	71%
DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:24	LAX 19:58	18%	6%	1.9%	no record
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LAX 21:00	20%	8%	1.3%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 25m	97%	88%
American Details →	FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07AA 1474	50m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	7h 53m	95%	86%
United Details →	FLL 06:59 → IAH 09:00UA 2314	53m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 31m	93%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON