Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:41 → LGA 21:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 09:57	6%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2304 Delta	FLL 07:03	LGA 09:51	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:10	LGA 09:00	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 1819 Delta	FLL 11:22	LGA 14:09	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	17%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 2720 American	FLL 11:57	LGA 14:53	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1135 American	FLL 12:29	LGA 15:40	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:40	LGA 12:33	19%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	19%	5%	0.8%	68%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:06	LGA 14:59	26%	6%	0.8%	58%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:19	LGA 22:10	27%	6%	1.0%	62%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:15	LGA 23:14	33%	10%	1.2%	55%
AA 2968 American	FLL 17:24	LGA 20:21	34%	8%	1.0%	no record
B6 672 JetBlue	FLL 18:41	LGA 21:34	44%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON