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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 29m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 8h 24m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:53 → EWR 12:45UA 2387 2h 02m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 15m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 49m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 22m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:19 → PHX 08:17AA 441 2h 24m Phoenix PHX 10:41 → MCI 15:28AA 1622 10h 09m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 3h 15m Dulles IAD 18:04 → MCI 19:57UA 1165 8h 44m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:23 → DFW 19:31AA 1373 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → MCI 22:14AA 595 5h 51m 73% 61%
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:29 → DFW 17:37AA 1390 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → MCI 20:04AA 2267 5h 35m 72% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON