Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 6% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1274 at 07:03, 2%.

Safest bet that day WN 1274 FLL 07:03 → MCO 08:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1792 FLL 16:43 → MCO 17:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1274 Southwest	FLL 07:03	MCO 08:14	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:44	MCO 12:59	13%	5%	1.6%	76%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	24%	16%	6.2%	64%
WN 1792 Southwest	FLL 16:43	MCO 17:43	30%	10%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON