Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2809 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2809 FLL 06:59 → ORD 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 403 FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2809 United	FLL 06:59	ORD 09:21	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:33	ORD 10:56	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	14%	5%	0.8%	71%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	18%	6%	0.9%	66%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:41	ORD 15:54	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:29	ORD 16:05	19%	6%	1.0%	69%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	19%	9%	1.8%	48%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	23%	8%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON