Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1800 at 20:34, 24%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1800 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:34	ORF 22:57	24%	12%	2.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925	7h 22m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:07 → ORF 12:02DL 3066	6h 02m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	4h 55m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 19:43 → ORF 23:39DL 5518 · flown by Endeavor	8h 52m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1413	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338	7h 48m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → ORF 17:12DL 2329	6h 08m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	6h 45m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON