Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2089 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2089 FLL 06:47 → PHL 09:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 376 FLL 20:59 → PHL 23:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2089 American Flight history →	FLL 06:47	PHL 09:37	3%	3%	0.7%	70%
AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 08:45	PHL 11:49	4%	2%	0.7%	95%
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 08:04	PHL 10:48	12%	4%	0.8%	66%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	FLL 14:56	PHL 17:39	13%	6%	0.8%	87%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	19%	10%	1.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON