Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 441 American Flight history →	FLL 06:19	PHX 08:17	8%	3%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	10h 50m	100%	92%
American Details →	FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07AA 1474	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	9h 53m	98%	90%
American Details →	FLL 07:09 → PHL 10:05AA 2089	3h 18m Philadelphia	PHL 13:23 → PHX 15:35AA 765	11h 26m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:49 → DTW 15:46DL 655	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 18:26 → PHX 19:47DL 1135	9h 58m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	9h 40m	99%	88%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311	3h 17m Denver	DEN 13:35 → PHX 14:45UA 631	9h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800	3h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	10h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 38m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON