Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1626 FLL 08:03 → RDU 10:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2626 FLL 19:15 → RDU 21:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1626 JetBlue	FLL 08:03	RDU 10:22	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	11%	4%	1.2%	75%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:15	RDU 21:24	14%	9%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON