tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, B6 1146 at 20:55, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1146 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 RIC 23:18 18% 9% 1.9% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 12:34 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 6h 35m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 33m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:53 → EWR 12:46UA 2387 2h 47m Newark EWR 15:33 → RIC 17:07UA 3639 · flown by Republic 7h 14m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 6h 45m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07AA 1474 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 10:34 → RIC 12:02AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 59m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54DL 1263 7h 24m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175 6h 23m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → FLL 09:19 → CLT 11:21AA 2087 3h 56m Charlotte CLT 15:17 → RIC 16:25AA 1757 7h 06m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 46m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 4h 15m 74% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON