Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:04 → SFO 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 277 FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:04	SFO 09:29	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1267 United	FLL 12:43	SFO 15:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	14%	8%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	98%	90%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311	1h 03m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 04m	96%	84%
American Details →	FLL 07:33 → DFW 09:52AA 1712	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:24 → SFO 13:06AA 2387	8h 33m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON