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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:19 → PHX 08:17AA 441 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 10h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 07m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 56m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 11h 45m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 17m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:33 → DFW 09:52AA 1712 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 9h 24m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256 8h 07m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:29 → DFW 17:37AA 1390 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13AA 364 9h 44m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673 51m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 48m 87% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:23 → DFW 19:31AA 1373 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13AA 364 7h 50m 66% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON