Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1553 FLL 11:45 → SJU 14:33 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest F9 3018 FLL 13:17 → SJU 16:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1553 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:45	SJU 14:33	16%	5%	0.7%	60%
B6 1453 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:10	SJU 17:56	19%	9%	0.7%	71%
F9 3018 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:17	SJU 16:05	25%	8%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON