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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Dulles, leaving 12:13, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 2h 45m Dulles IAD 17:34 → SNA 20:00UA 2319 10h 47m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:33 → DFW 09:52AA 1712 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 10h 05m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 57m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 06:59 → IAH 09:01UA 2314 3h 27m Houston IAH 12:28 → SNA 14:16UA 1533 10h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:53 → EWR 12:46UA 2387 1h 50m Newark EWR 14:36 → SNA 17:27UA 2477 10h 34m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:12 → DEN 12:35UA 204 3h 16m Denver DEN 15:51 → SNA 17:28UA 1497 10h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 58m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 53m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON