Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4407 at 18:38, 24%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4407 Southwest	FLL 18:38	STL 20:26	24%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	8h 05m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	5h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 44m	99%	90%
American Details →	FLL 14:56 → PHL 17:39AA 1333	2h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 20:11 → STL 21:43AA 798	7h 47m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833	7h 30m	100%	87%
United Details →	FLL 06:59 → IAH 09:00UA 2314	2h 48m Houston	IAH 11:48 → STL 14:00UA 2042	8h 01m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 45m	99%	86%
American Details →	FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07AA 1474	3h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:04 → STL 12:51AA 3096	7h 48m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON