Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1005 at 12:12, 19%.

Safest bet that day B6 1005 FLL 12:12 → TPA 13:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:12	TPA 13:32	19%	9%	2.6%	62%
WN 3162 Southwest	FLL 13:37	TPA 14:40	26%	6%	2.1%	no record
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	31%	19%	5.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON