tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1237 Delta Flight history → FSD 05:20 ATL 08:53 6% 4% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 2h 56m Chicago ORD 12:27 → ATL 15:37UA 2779 7h 02m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Denver DEN 10:24 → ATL 15:35UA 2806 8h 35m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → FSD 07:01 → ORD 08:58AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Chicago ORD 12:54 → ATL 16:07AA 1138 8h 06m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → FSD 12:56 → DEN 13:48UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 9h 01m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest 58m Denver DEN 13:23 → ATL 18:26UA 1671 5h 51m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:44 → DFW 14:59AA 2872 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:26 → ATL 20:46AA 3212 7h 02m 95% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON