Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5701 FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5848 FSD 17:05 → DEN 18:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5701 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:00	DEN 06:53	4%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 5492 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 12:56	DEN 13:48	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 5319 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 11:35	DEN 12:25	6%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1849 United	FSD 09:51	DEN 10:50	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5848 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 17:05	DEN 18:13	9%	3%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON