Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1857 FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 4992 FSD 18:45 → ORD 20:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1857 United Flight history →	FSD 07:35	ORD 09:31	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 07:01	ORD 08:58	8%	6%	0.7%	84%
MQ 4264 Envoy	FSD 07:09	ORD 08:58	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4422 GoJet	FSD 11:22	ORD 13:11	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
OO 4991 SkyWest	FSD 11:48	ORD 13:32	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3358 Envoy	FSD 12:06	ORD 13:44	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5320 SkyWest	FSD 15:20	ORD 17:07	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5353 SkyWest	FSD 18:32	ORD 20:14	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 4992 SkyWest	FSD 18:45	ORD 20:30	18%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON