Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4966 FSD 14:46 → PHX 16:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6453 FSD 08:16 → PHX 09:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4966 SkyWest	FSD 14:46	PHX 16:00	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6316 SkyWest	FSD 14:08	PHX 15:05	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6442 SkyWest	FSD 09:05	PHX 10:33	14%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 08:16	PHX 09:12	14%	5%	0.7%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON