Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 814 Delta	GEG 12:39	ATL 20:02	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	3h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 04m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	1h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 19m	98%	89%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	2h 04m Denver	DEN 10:24 → ATL 15:35UA 2806	7h 35m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	7h 28m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:14 → LAX 18:57DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 21:24 → ATL 05:00 +1DL 783	9h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:56 → SEA 19:38DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 23:19 → ATL 06:57 +1DL 567	10h 01m	100%	84%
American Details →	GEG 05:16 → DFW 10:55AA 484	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:07 → ATL 15:31AA 1008	7h 15m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	53m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	6h 22m	91%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	49m Seattle	SEA 09:11 → ATL 17:04DL 8802	7h 04m	74%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON