Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day QX 2099 GEG 06:42 → BOI 09:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2409 GEG 16:47 → BOI 19:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


QX 2099 Horizon	GEG 06:42	BOI 09:01	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 3404 SkyWest	GEG 10:38	BOI 12:51	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
QX 2272 Horizon	GEG 07:00	BOI 09:19	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 3466 SkyWest	GEG 10:12	BOI 12:33	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
QX 2346 Horizon	GEG 13:54	BOI 16:13	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
QX 2409 Horizon	GEG 16:47	BOI 19:04	14%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON