Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4856 at 11:04, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4856 Southwest	GEG 11:04	OAK 13:09	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 41m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	97%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	99%	95%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	99%	95%
Alaska Details →	GEG 15:49 → SEA 17:00AS 2350 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706	6h 57m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 08:27 → SEA 09:32AS 320	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533	5h 52m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 07:19 → OAK 08:57AS 735	3h 50m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:31 → SEA 14:36AS 455	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 17:16 → OAK 19:11AS 1328	5h 40m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON