Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 710 GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 251 GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 710 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 05:00	PDX 06:10	4%	2%	0.8%	97%
OO 3023 SkyWest	GEG 08:16	PDX 09:49	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 251 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 12:42	PDX 13:52	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
AS 2407 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 19:41	PDX 20:50	22%	6%	1.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON