Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2218 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–10%.

Safest bet that day DL 2218 GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 455 GEG 13:31 → SEA 14:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2218 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:25	SEA 06:40	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:59	SEA 21:22	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:56	SEA 19:39	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 07:00	SEA 08:22	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:37	SEA 19:01	10%	3%	0.5%	93%
AS 534 Alaska	GEG 05:46	SEA 06:52	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:30	SEA 12:54	12%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:00	SEA 14:25	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
OO 3143 SkyWest	GEG 12:14	SEA 13:49	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 360 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 06:57	SEA 08:01	16%	2%	0.6%	91%
OO 156 SkyWest	GEG 09:17	SEA 10:48	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 320 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 08:27	SEA 09:32	30%	3%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AS 455 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 13:31	SEA 14:36	31%	3%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 05:07	SEA 06:15	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 11:40	SEA 12:50	8%	2%	3.8%	92%
AS 2350 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 15:49	SEA 17:00	8%	8%	0.0%	92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 09:06	SEA 10:18	21%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 14:39	SEA 15:49	35%	8%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON