Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3038 at 17:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3038 Southwest	GEG 17:00	SJC 19:07	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 16:14 → LAX 18:57DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 21:34 → SJC 22:58DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	4h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	5h 11m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	97%	87%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	3h 14m Denver	DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256	8h 07m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON