tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2686 Southwest GEG 05:42 SMF 07:43 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 438 Southwest GEG 15:33 SMF 17:29 7% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 34m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:14 → LAX 18:57DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Seattle SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest 4h 54m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 30m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → GEG 14:11 → PHX 16:51AA 540 1h 24m Phoenix PHX 18:15 → SMF 20:23AA 464 6h 12m 95% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON