tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, QX 2113 at 16:09, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2113 Horizon GEG 16:09 SNA 19:00 19% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 51m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 10:58 → SNA 11:58DL 1814 6h 38m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 13m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 6h 59m 96% 84%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 39m Portland PDX 17:31 → SNA 19:57AS 574 7h 15m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 4h 50m 93% 83%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404 4h 37m 89% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 15:33 → SEA 16:51DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Seattle SEA 19:56 → SNA 22:45DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → GEG 05:16 → DFW 10:55AA 484 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → SNA 13:37AA 2465 8h 21m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:35 → SEA 14:44AS 455 1h 01m Seattle SEA 15:45 → SNA 18:19AS 1475 4h 44m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON