Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6414 GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest MQ 4001 GJT 16:43 → DFW 20:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6414 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 06:26	DFW 09:50	5%	3%	0.6%	89%
OO 6235 SkyWest	GJT 10:50	DFW 13:58	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4014 Envoy	GJT 13:04	DFW 16:21	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4001 Envoy	GJT 16:43	DFW 20:05	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON