Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2648 GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2295 GRR 15:40 → DEN 16:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2648 United Flight history →	GRR 08:00	DEN 08:54	6%	2%	0.6%	77%
WN 3539 Southwest	GRR 12:32	DEN 13:20	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2745 United Flight history →	GRR 15:37	DEN 16:30	9%	2%	0.6%	73%
F9 1247 Frontier Flight history →	GRR 16:22	DEN 17:21	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 2295 Southwest	GRR 15:40	DEN 16:27	12%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON