Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1561 GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 310 GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1561 American Flight history →	GRR 07:01	DFW 08:48	9%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 3167 American Flight history →	GRR 13:16	DFW 15:02	13%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 310 American Flight history →	GRR 17:24	DFW 19:14	18%	5%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON