Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5846 GRR 15:50 → DTW 16:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3500 GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5846 Republic	GRR 15:50	DTW 16:59	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5847 Republic	GRR 19:31	DTW 20:40	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3925 SkyWest	GRR 08:12	DTW 09:14	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3936 SkyWest	GRR 08:30	DTW 09:29	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3500 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 10:34	DTW 11:33	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 4885 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 05:30	DTW 06:30	15%	7%	1.2%	85%
DL 5473 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 12:10	DTW 13:13	29%	10%	1.9%	71%
DL 5511 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 17:55	DTW 18:59	30%	15%	6.1%	70%
DL 5390 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 14:35	DTW 15:38	33%	13%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON