Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 5760 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 5760 GRR 05:53 → LGA 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5104 GRR 17:28 → LGA 19:28 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5760 Republic	GRR 05:53	LGA 08:00	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5737 Republic	GRR 06:02	LGA 08:07	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 4498 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 12:16	LGA 14:30	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
YX 5712 Republic	GRR 11:31	LGA 13:44	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5061 Endeavor	GRR 11:42	LGA 13:42	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GRR 17:28	LGA 19:28	26%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON