Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3990 GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest 9E 5039 GRR 11:33 → MSP 12:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3990 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 11:34	MSP 12:14	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1555 Delta Flight history →	GRR 19:18	MSP 19:57	6%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2913 Delta Flight history →	GRR 07:00	MSP 07:32	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1245 Delta	GRR 15:54	MSP 16:27	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1609 Delta	GRR 16:07	MSP 16:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5039 Endeavor	GRR 11:33	MSP 12:08	7%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON