Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4424 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 4424 GRR 06:03 → ORD 06:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5516 GRR 17:59 → ORD 18:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4424 Republic	GRR 06:03	ORD 06:10	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3481 Envoy	GRR 05:46	ORD 05:59	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2386 American	GRR 07:11	ORD 07:32	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5674 SkyWest	GRR 05:02	ORD 05:08	7%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4778 SkyWest	GRR 05:45	ORD 05:51	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 6454 SkyWest	GRR 09:48	ORD 10:09	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 4780 Republic	GRR 15:01	ORD 15:30	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5329 SkyWest	GRR 11:59	ORD 12:05	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6365 SkyWest	GRR 10:32	ORD 10:38	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1113 United Flight history →	GRR 08:53	ORD 09:06	11%	3%	0.6%	72%
OO 5709 SkyWest	GRR 10:08	ORD 10:14	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2099 United Flight history →	GRR 07:07	ORD 07:12	13%	3%	0.6%	71%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 21:09	ORD 21:14	14%	5%	0.7%	67%
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:39	ORD 15:45	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	GRR 16:10	ORD 16:15	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 13:56	ORD 14:05	18%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 17:59	ORD 18:07	18%	6%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON