Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3018 GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1085 GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3018 Delta Flight history →	GSO 05:25	ATL 06:38	4%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 3004 Delta Flight history →	GSO 06:35	ATL 07:56	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3173 Delta Flight history →	GSO 10:14	ATL 11:31	8%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 3052 Delta Flight history →	GSO 12:26	ATL 13:50	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3060 Delta Flight history →	GSO 14:59	ATL 16:20	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2539 Delta Flight history →	GSO 16:15	ATL 17:38	9%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 1085 Delta Flight history →	GSO 08:14	ATL 09:37	10%	3%	0.6%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON