Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3965 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3965 GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3133 GSO 17:13 → CLT 18:06 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3965 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:24	CLT 08:25	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 1078 American Flight history →	GSO 05:16	CLT 06:09	8%	4%	0.6%	89%
MQ 3942 Envoy	GSO 19:05	CLT 19:59	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
PT 5999 Piedmont	GSO 15:28	CLT 16:38	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5906 Piedmont	GSO 06:35	CLT 07:27	18%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5996 Piedmont	GSO 10:10	CLT 11:02	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5942 Piedmont	GSO 10:05	CLT 10:58	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5997 Piedmont	GSO 11:55	CLT 12:47	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3133 American	GSO 17:13	CLT 18:06	25%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON