Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3886 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3886 GSO 13:40 → DFW 15:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2242 GSO 18:11 → DFW 20:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 13:40	DFW 15:27	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 2846 American Flight history →	GSO 07:04	DFW 09:03	12%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	GSO 18:11	DFW 20:08	23%	9%	2.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON