Today: G7 4415 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet today G7 4415 GSO 06:01 → EWR 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4508 GSO 14:40 → EWR 16:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4415 GoJet	GSO 06:01	EWR 07:55	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
G7 4439 GoJet	GSO 06:00	EWR 07:39	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
YX 3445 Republic	GSO 19:01	EWR 20:48	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	GSO 14:40	EWR 16:19	20%	6%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON